Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz are experiencing intensifying tension amid rising concerns over regional oil transport security.

Entities

• Strait of Hormuz (place) gravity 0.0045 · momentum -0.013 · Q173040
• Iraq (place) gravity 0.0028 · momentum -0.004 · Q796

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 141
• edge_weight_prior 6.6
• factor 21.36
• event_count_recent 240
• window_days 30

Confidence (57%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Strait of Hormuz and Iraq returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-07-25 11:00:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.44
  Mideast oil producers plan to bypass strait of hormuz 2
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 10:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.40
  Mideast oil producers step up plans to bypass the strait of hormuz
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 10:00:00 · gdelt · 1246 Reject mediation · tone -5.42
  897837 trump weighs massive attack on iran after two weeks of consecutive strikes
  Iran · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Donald Trump
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 09:45:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -4.74
  Article us iran strikes strait of hormuz iraq
  Iran · Saudi Arabia · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Bab-el-Mandeb
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 08:15:00 · gdelt · 0356 Express intent to cooperate · tone -5.11
  The 13th wave of hell trump i am planning a shock attack iran said no to a ceasefire dismantles kuwait mushroom cloud in jordan
  Iran · Jordan · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Donald Trump · Kuwait
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 06:00:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.46
  Mideast oil producers plan to bypass strait of hormuz
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 15:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.60
  Us strikes southern iran iraq border crossing on 12th straight night of attacks
  Iran · Yemen · Saudi Arabia · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 11:00:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.34
  West asia oil producers step up plans to bypass strait of hormuz
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · West Asia
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 10:00:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -4.18
  Gulf oil producers race to build alternative routes to the strait of hormuz
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Gulf
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 08:15:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.07
  Mideast oil producers step up plans to bypass the strait of hormuz
  Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 22:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.74
  From syria to uae race to bypass strait of hormuz is on
  Syria · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 17:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.44
  Article 903100
  United States · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 13:30:00 · gdelt · 015 Acknowledge or claim responsibility · tone -3.28
  Iraq eyes turkiye syria pipeline to curb strait of hormuz reliance
  Syria · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 13:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.35
  Oil pipelines around the strait of hormuz wont end the threat iran poses to middle east crude exports
  Iran · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Middle East · Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 12:00:00 · gdelt · 017 Engage in symbolic act · tone -2.46
  Iran vows us cannot overturn strategic win in strait of hormuz says irgc commander
  Iran · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 02:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -6.25
  Us iran war live updates strikes strait of hormuz middle east crisis latest news
  Iran · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Middle East
  source ↗
• 2026-07-19 19:45:00 · gdelt · 033 Express intent to provide material aid · tone -1.68
  Iraq and syria sign agreement to restore oil pipeline that would provide alternative to strait of hormuz
  Syria · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-19 12:15:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -4.40
  Iran us war live updates trump strait of hormuz tanker accident
  Iran · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · Donald Trump
  source ↗
• 2026-07-19 07:45:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -0.94
  2087353835 iraq studies new oil pipeline to't rkiye syria to bypass strait of hormuz
  Syria · Iraq · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-19 03:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -8.13
  Us iran war live updates strikes tehran kuwait bahrain uae strait of hormuz trump mojtaba brent crude price news july 19
  Iran · Iraq · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · Donald Trump · Iran nuclear · WTI Crude Oil Price · Kuwait · Bahrain
  source ↗

Confidence history