Israel and London are experiencing intensifying tensions as pro-Palestine activism and counter-demonstrations escalate across the British capital.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 48 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (52 NO, 48% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• London (place) gravity 0.0054 · momentum -0.050 · Q84

Signals

• factor 125.4
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2
• edge_weight_recent 250.8
• event_count_recent 408

Confidence (72%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and London returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -6.43
  26081049.golders green start establishment war dissent
  Israel · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.29
  Israel · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -4.18
  Matt lucas condemns prejudice britain jewish actor speaks time harassed pro palestine activist london tube station
  Israel · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:45:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -9.89
  Why the hate marches must not be banned
  Israel · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.52
  Israel · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:45:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -9.80
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:15:00 · gdelt · 172 Impose administrative sanctions · tone -10.89
  Uk convicts four palestine action activists over break in at israeli firm
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -13.68
  Four palestine action activists convicted over 2024 damage israeli
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 16:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.99
  Greens lessons destruction corbyn zack polanski labour
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 16:00:00 · gdelt · 052 Defend verbally · tone -14.78
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +0.00
  Newmed chief executive resigns to pursue opportunities on global stage
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:00:00 · gdelt · 071 Provide economic aid · tone -0.47
  Google deepmind workers vote to unionize over military ai deals
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:45:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -9.22
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.45
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 03:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -3.88
  Uk trade unions must call a general strike in support of state of palestine
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 02:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.06
  Dan hodges ive watching zack polanski closely ive worked plan deeply sinister happening politics
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 00:30:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -5.74
  Uk pm starmer says could
  Hamas · Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 22:15:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -4.78
  Irish state broadcaster in anti semitism row over boy george interview
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 19:30:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -6.54
  Us embassy warns citizens in uk as threat level raised to severe
  Israel · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 12:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.72
  Article 3528d433 4a76 522a 92fe
  Israel · London
  source ↗

Confidence history