Israel and Pyongyang are intensifying military coordination as North Korea accelerates ballistic missile testing programs.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Pyongyang (place) gravity 0.0012 · momentum -0.398 · Q18808

Signals

• factor 3.8
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 1.9
• event_count_recent 4

Confidence (42%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Pyongyang returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (4)

• 2026-04-21 19:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.06
  What lessons will north korea take from the war against iran
  Israel · Pyongyang
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 06:45:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -2.01
  Kim jong un oversees test fire upgraded ballistic missiles 555
  Iran · Israel · Pyongyang
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 03:45:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -1.75
  Kim jong un oversees test fire of upgraded ballistic missiles tipped with cluster
  Iran · Israel · Pyongyang
  source ↗
• 2026-04-19 15:00:00 · gdelt · 194 Fight with artillery and tanks · tone -1.55
  South korea north korea test launches ballistic missiles
  Israel · Pyongyang
  source ↗

Confidence history