Iran and London are experiencing sharply intensified diplomatic tensions centered on security and antisemitism concerns.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• London (place) gravity 0.0054 · momentum -0.050 · Q84

Signals

• factor 94.92
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 3.7
• edge_weight_recent 351.2
• event_count_recent 596

Confidence (70%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and London returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 10:15:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -1.99
  Biggest seller gas uk posts
  Iran · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 03:00:00 · gdelt · 138 Threaten with military force · tone -8.43
  Iran criminals attack starmer antisemitism golders green 5hjdyjs 2
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.20
  Starmer elections farage polanski badenoch
  Iran · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -7.13
  Synagogue arson london antisemitism iran jewish stabbing h18770
  Iran · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:15:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -8.26
  Attempts to divide british society won't be tolerated uk pm starmer to iran
  Iran · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -5.37
  Iran war us strait hormuz trump uae
  Iran · London · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:15:00 · gdelt · 035 Express intent to cooperate · tone -5.28
  Uk antisemitism london attack jews 5hjdyjd 2
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -9.40
  Starmer warns iran over uk destabilization efforts
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -11.80
  It will not be tolerated starmer warns iran over antisemitic attacks in britain article
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -9.46
  Starmer warns iran over uk destabilization efforts
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:45:00 · gdelt · 026 Appeal · tone -4.18
  Iranian exiles fear pro regime kill lists doxed telegram
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:00:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -3.80
  Rachel reeves scott bessent argued in person iran war sources
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 11:45:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -5.56
  Palestine coalition takes on london police chief over anti semitic marches claim
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 11:15:00 · gdelt · 015 Acknowledge or claim responsibility · tone -4.41
  Starmer says jewish brits asking whether this country safe them
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 05:45:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -8.62
  Keir starmer goes war antisemitism
  Iran · Keir Starmer · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 17:45:00 · gdelt · 140 Protest · tone -8.59
  Article 895097
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 17:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.09
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 15:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -7.04
  Article 895084
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 14:45:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -5.15
  The iranian terror group targeting europes jews jay solomon
  Iran · London
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 14:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.61
  Religion doesnt matter man stop knife attack golders green 5hjdyfm 2
  Iran · London
  source ↗

Confidence history