Economic Community of West African States is intensifying tension with Bola Tinubu over recent diplomatic snubs regarding xenophobia.

Entities

• Bola Tinubu (person) gravity 0.0034 · momentum -0.021 · Q748028
• Economic Community of West African States (org) gravity 0.0006 · momentum +0.008 · Q193681

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 65
• edge_weight_prior 1.5
• factor 43.33
• event_count_recent 130
• window_days 30

Confidence (63%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Bola Tinubu and Economic Community of West African States returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (9)

• 2026-07-28 04:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -6.16
  Xenophobia in safrica tinubu snubs ramaphosas envoy
  Abuja · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Nigeria
  source ↗
• 2026-07-27 06:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -6.91
  Xenophobia tinubu declines to receive south african envoy
  Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Abuja
  source ↗
• 2026-07-21 10:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.73
  Tinubu demands united front against afro phobic attacks in south africa
  South Africa · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Nigeria
  source ↗
• 2026-07-21 10:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +1.17
  Vice president in sierra leone to represent tinubu at 69th ecowas summit
  Nigeria · Abuja · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 12:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.77
  At 69th ecowas meeting president tinubu demands united front against afro phobic attacks in safrica
  Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Nigeria
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 07:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.70
  At 69th ecowas meeting president tinubu demands united front against afro phobic attacks in safrica
  Nigeria · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 06:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.68
  At 67th ecowas summit tinubu seeks united front against afro phobic attacks in safrica
  Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Nigeria · Lagos
  source ↗
• 2026-07-20 06:00:00 · gdelt · 018 Make empathetic comment · tone -3.24
  Tinubu pushes ecowas to confront south africa over attacks on nigerians
  South Africa · Nigeria · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu
  source ↗
• 2026-07-19 23:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone +1.01
  Tinubu urges ecowas to condemn xenophobic attacks in south africa backs regional integration compact
  South Africa · Economic Community of West African States · Bola Tinubu · Tinubu · Nigeria · Lagos
  source ↗

Confidence history