The United States and Erdogan are intensifying cooperation amid recent diplomatic gestures and military discussions.

Entities

• United States (place) gravity 0.0775 · momentum +0.001 · Q30
• Erdogan (person) gravity 0.0013 · momentum -0.012 · Q39259

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 141.7
• edge_weight_prior 6.8
• factor 20.84
• event_count_recent 248
• window_days 30

Confidence (56%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between United States and Erdogan returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (19)

• 2026-07-13 11:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.94
  Erdogan gifts trump gold plated revolver during nato summit
  United States · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan · Washington · D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-07-11 09:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.55
  Erdogan brushes aside greek and israeli objections to possible f 35 sale
  United States · Washington · D.C. · Greece · Erdogan · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-07-10 12:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -5.13
  Israel netanyahu turkey erdogan politics election iran
  Iran · Israel · United States · Turkey · Gaza Strip · Benjamin Netanyahu · Israel-Gaza · Election · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-10 09:45:00 · gdelt · 163 Impose embargo, boycott, sanctions · tone -4.26
  Erdogan taunts israel greece after trump hands turkey f 35 sanctions win
  Israel · United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · Washington · D.C. · Greece · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-09 20:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.64
  Turkey erdogan trump russia nato iran
  Iran · United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · Russia · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-09 15:30:00 · gdelt · 151 Increase police alert status · tone -0.34
  Trump erdogan us turkey relations f35 nato
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-09 11:15:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -0.17
  Conventional wisdom face value erdogan vahidi sharma
  United States · Washington · D.C. · Erdogan · Congress
  source ↗
• 2026-07-09 04:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.38
  Trump at the nato summit sulking betrayed by the allies i am here in turkiye only for my friend erdogan
  United States · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 20:30:00 · gdelt · 017 Engage in symbolic act · tone -0.50
  Erdogan mitsotakis should not have made such a mistake turkey has right to buy f 35s
  United States · Turkey · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 17:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.03
  Trump lashes out at allies as key nato summit begins
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 12:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +1.09
  Nato summit thats why erdogan emerged as the real winner
  United States · Canada · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan · Washington · D.C. · White House · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 11:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.01
  Denmark expects nato to defend greenland from erstwhile friend us
  United States · Turkey · Denmark · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 10:30:00 · gdelt · 085 Ease economic sanctions, boycott, embargo · tone -2.13
  Turkish us top diplomats meet after trump erdogan talks 224138
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 10:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.69
  Nato summit in turkiye trump lashes out at allies
  United States · Donald Trump · Washington · D.C. · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 10:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.87
  Trump renews calls for control of greenland at
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 01:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.85
  Trump recep tayyip erdogan nato summit
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan · Washington · D.C. · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 00:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.94
  Fact check trump meeting erdogan
  United States · Donald Trump · Washington · D.C. · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 00:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.85
  Nato unveils billions in arms deals to prove its firepower as trump again demands greenland
  United States · Turkey · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-07 23:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -0.96
  Netanyahu said after trump hailed erdogan turkey is not a friendly country to the us
  Israel · United States · Turkey · Gaza Strip · Benjamin Netanyahu · Donald Trump · Israel-Gaza · Erdogan
  source ↗

Confidence history