Israel and Sydney are experiencing intensified media coverage linking the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to social tensions and antisemitism concerns in the Australian city.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Sydney (place) gravity 0.0033 · momentum -0.154 · Q3130

Signals

• factor 140.4
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 70.2
• event_count_recent 119

Confidence (73%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Sydney returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-05 15:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +1.97
  Cape breton post reporter nicole sullivan nominated for atlantic journalism award
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.66
  Sydney intifada darlington redfern
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 07:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.69
  Does the royal commission into antisemitism and social cohesion go far enough
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 00:15:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -6.78
  1e721eb6 9b5c 45d9 b0bc
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 14:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -7.33
  Bondi beach shooting hanukkah
  Hamas · Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 13:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -2.69
  Sydneys mayor cancels globalise the intifada forum set for council building ntwnfb
  Gaza Strip · Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +1.11
  Australian gaza aid flotilla activist returns home following israeli detention
  Australia · Gaza · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:30:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -5.12
  Australia begins hearings into bondi beach attack and rising antisemitism
  Australia · Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:00:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -5.89
  Royal commission hears fear
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 10:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.49
  Australia was golden but not anymore jews tell royal commission
  Australia · Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 09:45:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone +1.86
  Flotilla ordeal ends with tearful mother embracing son
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 09:15:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -5.76
  Draconian anti protest law dumped
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 01:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.84
  Antisemitism royal commission begins hearings months after 15 killed in alleged bondi terror attack
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 18:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.68
  Bondi attack inquiry to hear of everyday anti semitism
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 07:00:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -2.58
  Newcastle harbour 200 protest after gaza aid flotilla activists held
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 11:30:00 · gdelt · 1053 Demand mediation · tone -3.86
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 08:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.80
  Gaza flotilla australian activists released crete allege mistreatment by israel ntwnfb
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 03:15:00 · gdelt · 084 Return, release · tone -4.83
  Six australian gaza flotilla detainees freed by israel 20260502 p5zt4i
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 02:45:00 · gdelt · 025 Appeal to yield · tone -5.03
  Six australian gaza flotilla detainees freed by israel
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 08:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.72
  Israel · Sydney
  source ↗

Confidence history