Israel and Beijing are intensifying diplomatic engagement as China positions itself as a mediator in Middle Eastern tensions.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Beijing (place) gravity 0.0051 · momentum -0.089 · Q956

Signals

• factor 28.13
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.6
• edge_weight_recent 45
• event_count_recent 78

Confidence (59%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Beijing returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -0.23
  Iran will only accept fair and comprehensive peace deal abbas araghchi in meeting with china's wang yi 2026 05 06
  Beijing · China · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.06
  Iranian foreign minister meets chinese counterpart in beijing
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -1.40
  Beijing · China · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 07:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.44
  Iran war gives us rivals a real time look at its firepower
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 19:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +2.07
  Chinese tourists closer israel
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 18:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.84
  Article 894606
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-28 23:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -3.97
  Democrats urge trump keep ban chinese cars us xi meeting looms
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 15:15:00 · gdelt · 174 Expel or deport individuals · tone -4.97
  Hasan piker democrats israel china
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 15:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -0.42
  China role iran war diplomacy ceasefire influence
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 07:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.68
  A look at chinas behind the scenes role in iran war
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 20:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -0.54
  China ramps up military support for somalia
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 09:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.69
  Chinas diplomacy succeeds even if it doesnt bring middle east peace
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 14:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.23
  Trump iran war matt duss
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 21:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.27
  China iran war news petrol taiwan
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 13:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.31
  Russia and china deepen shadow support for iran
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 09:45:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -5.13
  China urges israel lebanon to act with sense of responsibility amid ceasefire
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 07:00:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -5.10
  U.S. navy destroyer prevents two oil tankers from leaving iran
  Beijing · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 03:00:00 · gdelt · 129 Refuse to ease popular dissent · tone -6.91
  India expresses on shipping attacks in hormuz but stays neutral on unsc resolution veto
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 21:15:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -2.71
  Article eebfa4c1 c5c7 55d9 b969
  Beijing · Israel · Lebanon · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 18:30:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -3.91
  The american military can clear mines but not minds
  Beijing · Israel
  source ↗

Confidence history