Tehran and Erdogan are intensifying cooperation in reshaping the Eastern Mediterranean.

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0155 · momentum +0.006 · Q3616
• Erdogan (person) gravity 0.0013 · momentum -0.012 · Q39259

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 42.5
• edge_weight_prior 2.1
• factor 20.24
• event_count_recent 74
• window_days 30

Confidence (56%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and Erdogan returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (10)

• 2026-07-17 07:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -2.80
  5296978 tehran and tel aviv and reshaping eastern mediterranean
  Lebanon · Turkey · Tehran · Tel Aviv · Iran nuclear · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-08 09:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +3.64
  Trump criticises nato pledges closer ties with turkey during talks with erdogan
  Iran · Turkey · Tehran · Donald Trump · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-05 19:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -5.51
  Artc erdogan pressed trump to halt planned us israeli ground operation against iran
  Iran · United States · Tehran · Donald Trump · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-05 13:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +4.30
  Pak turkiye progress interconnected pm sharif president erdogan discuss trade defence in istanbul
  Turkey · Tehran · Istanbul · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-05 07:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -1.98
  Turkiyes erdogan says israel must not be allowed to derail us iran deal
  Iran · Israel · Tehran · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-05 02:15:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -1.00
  Erdogan warns israel against undermining U.S. iran deal
  Iran · Israel · Tehran · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-04 19:00:00 · gdelt · 128 Refuse to ease administrative sanctions · tone -1.98
  Turkiyes erdogan says israel must not be able to dynamite us iran deal
  Iran · Israel · Tehran · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-04 15:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.38
  Iran fires on ships in strait of hormuz as tehran imposes restrictions again
  Iran · Qatar · Turkey · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · Iran nuclear · Erdogan
  source ↗
• 2026-07-03 00:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.01
  Nato summit ankara trump rutte erdogan ukraine iran
  Iran · Tehran · Donald Trump · Ukraine · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Russia-Ukraine war · Ankara · Erdogan · United States · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-06-24 15:00:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -0.95
  Turkish president erdogan israel working actively sabotage us israel agreement
  Israel · United States · Turkey · Tehran · Erdogan
  source ↗

Confidence history