Washington, D.C. and Iraq are experiencing sharply intensified military and diplomatic engagement as Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq escalate tensions.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 15 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (7 NO, 53% YES rate).

Entities

• Washington, D.C. (place) gravity 0.0253 · momentum -0.038 · Q61
• Iraq (place) gravity 0.0046 · momentum +0.279 · Q796

Signals

• factor 49.14
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.8
• edge_weight_recent 137.6
• event_count_recent 247

Confidence (64%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Washington, D.C. and Iraq returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 07:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.02
  Artc iranian proxies attacked us targets in iraq over 600 times during ongoing conflict report
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 04:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.11
  The iraq wars disastrous legacy rears its head
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 01:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.77
  Cd21 primary anthony constantino janet mills graham platner
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 15:45:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -3.18
  Popular mobilization forces pmf of iraq who favours tehran an obstacle to west asia strategy of the us
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 22:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -6.98
  Iraq on the brink war between giants engulfs a fragile state
  Iran · Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 16:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +1.09
  Us banking iraqi turnaround nomination zaidi new pm
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 12:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.47
  319909 iraqi pm designate says trump invited him to us once govt formed
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 18:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +3.68
  Trump says he spoke with iraq pm designate voices strong support
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 17:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +4.72
  Trump says he spoke with iraq pm designate voices strong support
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 13:45:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -5.60
  Iran war poll iraq vietnam
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 12:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.47
  319909 iraqi pm designate says trump invited him to us once govt formed
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 22:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.23
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 22:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +1.24
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 22:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.61
  Trump congratulates iraq pm designate zaidi call what know
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 20:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.22
  Iraqi pm designate says trump invited him to us once govt formed
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 19:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +4.25
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 15:45:00 · gdelt · 1822 Physically assault · tone -4.67
  Axios report jack keane marc thiessen lindsey graham consulting donald trump iran war deadlock military action
  Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 10:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.73
  Irans regime is changing and the man taking over is a problem for trump
  Iran · Iraq · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 17:00:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -3.38
  29042026 its high time for baghdad to make some hard decisions oped
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 15:00:00 · gdelt · 195 Employ aerial weapons · tone -5.53
  Mil 260428
  Iraq · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗

Confidence history