Tehran and Canada are experiencing intensifying diplomatic tension amid recent official statements and policy clarifications.

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0155 · momentum +0.006 · Q3616
• Canada (place) gravity 0.0094 · momentum -0.002 · Q16

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 51.1
• edge_weight_prior 2
• factor 25.55
• event_count_recent 91
• window_days 30

Confidence (58%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and Canada returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-07-01 16:15:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -2.67
  Press briefing by the spokesperson of the ministry of foreign affairs of the islamic republic of iran with journalists
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-28 19:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -1.03
  10fd3d30 4f00 430b 85da
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Mark Carney
  source ↗
• 2026-06-28 00:15:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone +1.01
  561cd12e e156 4487 ac69
  Tehran · Canada · Mark Carney · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-06-27 18:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +0.00
  Canada has no plans to open embassies in iran or venezuela anand says
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-27 18:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.56
  Carney says canada reopen embassies
  Tehran · Canada · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Iran · Mark Carney
  source ↗
• 2026-06-26 20:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +0.36
  Article 173b5df5 3345 5f10 85b5
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-26 20:00:00 · gdelt · 032 Express intent to cooperate · tone +1.25
  Canada has no plans to open embassies in iran or venezuela anand says
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-26 19:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +1.44
  Canada has no plans to open embassies in iran or venezuela anand says
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-26 03:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.97
  Carney says having no embassy in iran puts canada at a disadvantage
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-26 01:30:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -2.55
  Carney says canada should reopen embassies in iran and earthquake stricken venezuela
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-25 23:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +0.31
  Carney iran embassy canada
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-25 21:30:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -2.56
  Carney says canada should reopen embassies in iran and earthquake stricken venezuela
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-25 20:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.65
  Carney iran venezuela embassies diplomatic presence
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Venezuela
  source ↗
• 2026-06-24 13:30:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -2.48
  Former canadian fm john baird rejects binary dictatorship at free iran 2026 world summit
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-23 14:15:00 · gdelt · 186 Assassinate · tone -1.12
  Canadian mp judy sgro champions democratic transition in iran condemns regime brutality
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-22 00:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -7.10
  22062026 free iran summit 2026 global leaders condemn executions and back irans organized resistance oped
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-20 19:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.49
  Free iran 2026 global leaders at paris summit demand end to appeasement endorsing ncri as the democratic alternative for iran
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-06-20 15:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.29
  French dignitaries and ncri denounce paris rally ban as capitulation to tehran
  Iran · Tehran · Canada · Paris · Iran nuclear
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 02:45:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -10.98
  958047 iran war leaves islamic republic intact and opponents divided
  Iran · Tehran · Canada
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 17:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.59
  Tehran · Canada
  source ↗

Confidence history