Indonesia and Lebanon are intensifying diplomatic coordination over regional security concerns and peacekeeping operations in the eastern Mediterranean.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 5 YES of 9 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (4 NO, 56% YES rate).

Entities

• Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0352 · momentum -0.019 · Q822
• Jakarta (place) gravity 0.0010 · momentum -0.050 · Q3630

Signals

• factor 4.6
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2
• edge_weight_recent 9.2
• event_count_recent 18

Confidence (43%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Lebanon and Jakarta returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (12)

• 2026-04-30 13:15:00 · gdelt · 017 Engage in symbolic act · tone +0.00
  Four indonesian crew safe after somalia ship hijacking mofa
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 10:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -6.10
  Indonesia to repatriate body of private first class rico pramudia
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 05:00:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -0.63
  Prabowo tilts toward washington
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 03:30:00 · gdelt · 0234 Appeal for material cooperation · tone -3.61
  Indonesia sends condolences over death of french peacekeeper in lebanon
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 09:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -5.92
  Unifil says israeli tank of ramming un peacekeepers vehicles
  Israel · Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-12 04:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.69
  Jakarta seeks justice for peacekeepers
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 05:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -0.32
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 02:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.41
  Indonesia demands thorough probe of peacekeeper deaths
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 09:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.70
  Unifil says israeli forces detained peacekeeper in south lebanon
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 06:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -3.56
  Preliminary un probe blames israel
  Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 05:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.00
  Un finds idf tank fire bomb behind death of 3 indonesian peacekeepers
  Israel · Jakarta · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 10:00:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone -5.58
  Indonesian parliament speaker urges end to middle east hostilities
  Indonesia · Jakarta · Lebanon · Middle East
  source ↗

Confidence history