Tensions between Uganda and Nairobi are intensifying amid rising disputes and political conflicts.

Entities

• Nairobi (place) gravity 0.0018 · momentum +0.107 · Q3870
• Uganda (place) gravity 0.0005 · momentum -0.012 · Q1036

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 11.3
• edge_weight_prior 0.4
• factor 28.25
• event_count_recent 22
• window_days 30

Confidence (59%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Nairobi and Uganda returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (7)

• 2026-06-29 03:45:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -4.80
  Uganda army chief shuts down leading media group
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi
  source ↗
• 2026-06-24 06:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.05
  Kenya complicit in my deportation from uganda martha karua says
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi · Immigration
  source ↗
• 2026-06-23 08:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.48
  2026 06 23 karua ill visit uganda after museveni leaves power
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi
  source ↗
• 2026-06-23 08:00:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -6.26
  Former kenyan justice minister blocked from entering uganda lawyers body says
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi
  source ↗
• 2026-06-22 18:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.54
  2026 06 22 karua uganda interfering with besigyes defence
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi
  source ↗
• 2026-06-22 15:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.93
  They snatched my phones karua recounts uganda deportation ordeal
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi · Immigration
  source ↗
• 2026-06-22 12:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.64
  Karua denied entry into uganda ahead of besigye bail ruling
  Kenya · Uganda · Nairobi
  source ↗

Confidence history