Israel and New York City are experiencing intensifying tensions as pro-Palestinian protests and counter-demonstrations escalate in the city.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 44 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (56 NO, 44% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• New York City (place) gravity 0.0017 · momentum -0.080 · Q60

Signals

• factor 107.8
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 53.9
• event_count_recent 103

Confidence (71%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and New York City returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 02:00:00 · gdelt · 145 Protest violently, riot · tone -12.28
  Hateful anti israel mob descends on historic nyc synagogue clash with cops in chaotic protest
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 23:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -0.85
  Article 895232
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 23:00:00 · gdelt · 133 Threaten with political dissent · tone -4.42
  Article 895231
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 21:45:00 · gdelt · 140 Protest · tone -1.46
  Nyc braces for first protest outside synagogue under new buffer zone law
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 10:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.70
  Poll suggests most jewish new yorkers oppose mamdani policies connect rising jew hatred and normalized anti zionism
  Gaza Strip · Israel · Mali · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 01:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.81
  Nyu groups join thousands for may day protests
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 03:15:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -2.70
  Fired columbia professor backed hamas
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 18:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.79
  International news briefs for friday may 1 2026
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 16:30:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -2.48
  Article ee359cf1 fef6 58fe a3cf
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 06:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.15
  Jts isaac herzog student letter
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 13:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.30
  Adam miller la mayor ikar synagogue
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 11:45:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -3.69
  Hasan piker favors hamas is pushing dems to be anti israel and wants jews not to worry about him
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 02:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -3.58
  Interview hasan piker doesnt want jews to worry about him
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 17:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +0.00
  2026 nyc congressional primaries watch
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 05:45:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -3.08
  Mamdani issues first veto reject bill protest buffer zones schools
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 00:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.36
  Buffer zone house worship
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 20:15:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -11.62
  Protester pleads guilty to arson during anti israel rally that damaged ccny building
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 17:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.80
  Article b0345e59 c1ca 5e59 9c47
  Israel · New York City
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 15:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -5.74
  Mayor mamdani vetoes bill to restrict protests near schools and universities
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 10:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -1.37
  Suozzi israel lbjryhas
  Israel · New York City · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history