Iran and Jakarta are intensifying diplomatic and strategic coordination amid regional security concerns.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Jakarta (place) gravity 0.0010 · momentum -0.050 · Q3630

Signals

• factor 30.6
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 15.3
• event_count_recent 31

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Jakarta returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (15)

• 2026-05-05 03:00:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone +2.59
  Indonesia japan sign defence cooperation
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 08:15:00 · gdelt · 0353 Express intent to cooperate · tone -3.25
  Iran war trump says us to guide ships safely from hormuz
  Donald Trump · Hormuz · Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-26 15:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -5.11
  Trump says shooting wont dissuade him from iran war
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 09:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.90
  Indonesia says no to uk france proposed hormuz naval mission
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 06:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -5.01
  Indonesia tanker release through hormuz in progress
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 06:30:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -1.25
  Proposal of us overflight in indonesian airspace sparks ministerial rift
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-15 06:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -0.68
  Fact check donald trump did not mention sunni shia in indonesia over iran
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-14 03:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.19
  Iranian president condemns trumps insult towards pope leo xiv
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 13:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.68
  Iran says no ports are safe with us strait of hormuz blockade
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 05:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -5.49
  Trump claims pope leo xiv elected because of him
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-11 14:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone +0.74
  Why two pertamina tankers still stranded in persian gulf
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 17:15:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -2.31
  Prabowo responds to stubborn criticism cites iranian fighters
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 11:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +1.83
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 09:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.29
  Indonesia welcomes us iran ceasefire strait of hormuz reopening
  Iran · Jakarta
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 10:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.58
  Indonesian parliament speaker urges end to middle east hostilities
  Indonesia · Iran · Jakarta · Middle East
  source ↗

Confidence history