Lebanon and Qatar are intensifying diplomatic coordination as high-level parliamentary and ambassadorial engagement accelerates.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 10 YES of 17 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (7 NO, 59% YES rate).

Entities

• Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0352 · momentum -0.019 · Q822
• Qatar (place) gravity 0.0061 · momentum +0.043 · Q846

Signals

• factor 4.74
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 6.9
• edge_weight_recent 32.7
• event_count_recent 60

Confidence (44%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Lebanon and Qatar returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-04 12:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.46
  Article 71bfe13a 3464 529b 82f6
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 21:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +7.76
  Speaker of lebanese parliament meets qatari ambassador
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-28 17:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.22
  Al Udeid Air Base · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 16:00:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -3.29
  Irans fm arrives in pakistan ahead of planned us ceasefire talks
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 19:45:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -3.38
  Iran's foreign minister arrives in pakistan raising hopes for us peace talks
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 02:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.98
  Trump plotting escalation war says
  Al Udeid Air Base · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-19 16:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +0.90
  10 pinoy sailors qatar return home
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-19 09:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -8.34
  2026 04 19 thousands of civilians have died in israels widely condemned shadow war on lebanon
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 23:30:00 · gdelt · 195 Employ aerial weapons · tone -8.11
  Qatar condemns attack targeting unifil patrol in southern lebanon
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 02:15:00 · gdelt · 129 Refuse to ease popular dissent · tone -2.56
  Opinions analysis
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 08:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.36
  French president macron welcomes lebanon israel ceasefire
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 05:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.36
  Celebrations in lebanon as 10 day ceasefire with israel begins
  Gaza Strip · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 02:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.00
  Israel lebanon agree 10 day
  Lebanon · Qatar · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 01:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -2.06
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 23:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.93
  Fireworks celebratory gunfire light up beirut as ceasefire comes into
  Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 21:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.83
  Qatar welcomes ceasefire announcement in lebanon
  Al Udeid Air Base · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 21:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.74
  Lebanon ceasefire israel attacks pause talks
  Lebanon · Qatar · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 13:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +0.00
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-15 19:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +2.21
  In the studio with rama duwaji
  Al Udeid Air Base · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-14 18:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.71
  Framing and omission in bbc reporting
  Beirut · Lebanon · Qatar
  source ↗

Confidence history