ASEAN is intensifying diplomatic cooperation with Moscow.

Entities

• Moscow (place) gravity 0.0079 · momentum +0.053 · Q649
• ASEAN (org) gravity 0.0014 · momentum +0.069 · Q7768

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 145.5
• edge_weight_prior 1.6
• factor 90.94
• event_count_recent 236
• window_days 30

Confidence (69%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Moscow and ASEAN returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-06-20 19:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +2.78
  Diplomacy pbbm delivers
  ASEAN · Moscow · Philippines · Russia
  source ↗
• 2026-06-20 17:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.09
  Russia frees 24 filipinos after marcos talks with putin
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-20 15:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.46
  The west is losing the diplomacy war and asean is quietly winning it
  ASEAN · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 09:15:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone -3.21
  Moscow refinery struck in ukrainian attack
  ASEAN · Kyiv · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 08:15:00 · gdelt · 017 Engage in symbolic act · tone +2.48
  123820 putin asean leaders back deeper strategic partnership at kazan summit
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 06:30:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone +4.30
  Vietnam russia target 15bn trade push ahead with ninh thuan 1 nuclear project
  Vietnam · ASEAN · Russia · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 05:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +4.47
  Philippine president marcos invites russian counterpart putin to finally visit manila
  Manila · ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 05:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.77
  Putin threatens revenge ukraine drone blitz moscow
  ASEAN · Ukraine · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin · Russia-Ukraine war
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 01:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.24
  Putin's frail appearance sparks very serious psychological blow theory
  ASEAN · Moscow · Vladimir Putin · Russia
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 00:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -6.03
  If ukraine burns moscow burns zelenskyy makes good on his warning with massive drone strike
  ASEAN · Ukraine · Russia · Moscow · Volodymyr Zelensky · Russia-Ukraine war
  source ↗
• 2026-06-19 00:00:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone +1.66
  Putin leaders of southeast asia agree to bolster ties at summit in russia
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 20:45:00 · gdelt · 054 Grant diplomatic recognition · tone +3.02
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 20:00:00 · gdelt · 019 Express accord · tone +1.11
  167113 russia asean summit putin southeast asia
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin · Singapore
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 19:15:00 · gdelt · 125 Reject plan, agreement to settle dispute · tone +3.60
  Asean offers alternative to eu integration model expert
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 19:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.78
  Putin confronts war reality
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin · Russia-Ukraine war
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 19:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.27
  Ukrainian drones set a moscow refinery ablaze in a major attack on the russian capital
  ASEAN · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 18:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +3.18
  115203 putin courts asean leaders in push for multipolar challenge to U.S. influence
  Turkey · ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin · Ukraine
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 18:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +1.66
  Putin and leaders of southeast asia agree to bolster ties at a summit in russia
  Philippines · ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Vladimir Putin
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 16:15:00 · gdelt · 054 Grant diplomatic recognition · tone +5.93
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow
  source ↗
• 2026-06-18 15:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.32
  Ukrainian drones moscow attack
  ASEAN · Russia · Moscow · Kyiv
  source ↗

Confidence history