Israel and Paris are experiencing intensifying tensions as French Jewish emigration to Israel accelerates amid concerns about antisemitism in France.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 53 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (47 NO, 53% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Paris (place) gravity 0.0023 · momentum -0.010 · Q90

Signals

• factor 32.83
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 3
• edge_weight_recent 98.5
• event_count_recent 156

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Paris returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-05 07:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.82
  Ancient gaza artefacts meet contemporary palestinian stories in turin exhibition
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 10:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +2.28
  Health science
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 07:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.33
  No future for jews of france scores of french jewish doctors prepare to immigrate to israel
  France · Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 00:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.75
  506065 lebanons peace without paris us and israeli strategies reshape diplomatic dynamics raise questions of balance and legitimacy
  Israel · Lebanon · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 12:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -8.42
  Article 894705
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 16:45:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -8.83
  Christian leaders slam
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 02:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.16
  Israel sumudarrests approximately 175 gaza flotilla activists in international waters near greece
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 17:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.84
  French lawmakers denounce israeli abduction of gaza aid flotilla call for sanctions
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 17:00:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -2.92
  Israel · Lebanon · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 15:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.65
  Article 894715
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 12:45:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -5.02
  Israel intercepts detains crews gaza aid flotillas crete
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 20:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.65
  Palestinian authority tv promises israel will pass and cease to exist
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 13:15:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -1.90
  After the encampments a roundtable with student organizers on palestine the university and what comes next
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-26 17:15:00 · gdelt · 072 Provide military aid · tone -7.10
  Alleged hezbollah ambush french patrol kills two peacekeepers lebanon
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 13:15:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone +3.19
  Article 893966
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 14:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.71
  Fedex targeted french lawsuit over complicity gaza genocide
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 05:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.20
  5265174 lebanese state not seeking confrontation hezbollah won%e2%80%99t be intimidated pm says
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 01:30:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -2.88
  Israel · Lebanon · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 21:45:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -0.84
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 18:30:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -3.52
  Lebanon pm and macron to discuss bolstering countrys position in israel talks
  Israel · Paris
  source ↗

Confidence history