Iran and Pakistan are intensifying diplomatic coordination as Islamabad mediates regional tensions involving nuclear and maritime disputes.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Islamabad (place) gravity 0.0104 · momentum -0.031 · Q1362

Signals

• factor 97.77
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 40.7
• edge_weight_recent 3979.3
• event_count_recent 7062

Confidence (70%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Islamabad returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -1.62
  Has the us accepted irans demand to settle hormuz first nuclear later
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -3.68
  Asim munirs mediation drive may be putting pakistan in peril
  Iran · Islamabad · Saudi Arabia
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -2.12
  Irans araghchi holds talks with chinas wang yi in beijing
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.79
  949954 iran standoff could leave trump worse off than before he went to war
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.14
  Trump pauses project freedom after one day citing progress toward iran deal
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 07:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.19
  Trump pauses us operation to help ships exit hormuz cites iran peace talks progress
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 07:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -0.50
  Trump pauses hormuz escort plan amid iran talks
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 02:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.35
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 01:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.89
  Marco rubio pope leo trump vatican
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 23:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -4.63
  Us iran truce teeters meltdown
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 22:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.01
  Pakistan voices hope for early resolution of us iran conflict as strait of hormuz tensions surge
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.55
  Us iran truce teeters on meltdown as stalemate takes toll on each side
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.34
  663016 pakistan hopeful efforts will lead to early resolution of us iran conflict dpm dar
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.94
  20260505 iran says us needs to show minimum good faith for diplomacy
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone +3.20
  Pakistani fm says mediation efforts continue to end mideast conflict
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:30:00 · gdelt · 018 Make empathetic comment · tone -3.73
  2087350283 water blockade to be treated as act of war pakistan warns india
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +0.00
  Iranian foreign minister araghchi to visit china today
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.65
  414000 minab 168 the martyrdom of innocents becomes the cause of a superpowers downfall
  Iran · Islamabad · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -3.38
  Jebel ali collapse transforms iran's logistical position
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 14:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -2.66
  Will pakistans new defence pact saudi arabia give chinese arms risk free exposure
  Iran · Islamabad
  source ↗

Confidence history