Darfur is experiencing a sharp spike in negative-toned reporting and international attention concentrated in the region.

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Entities

• Darfur (place) gravity 0.0006 · momentum -0.106 · Q170564

Signals

• factor 20
• n_prior 1
• cell_lat 13.5
• cell_lon 25.5
• n_recent 20
• cell_size 0.5
• tone_recent -0.94
• window_days 14
• nearest_place Darfur
• nearest_place_km 223.5

Confidence (70%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Event volume in the cell drops back to its prior 30-day baseline, or no new events arrive there for 7 consecutive days.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (3)

• 2026-05-05 20:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.00
  Sudanese journalists gather in france as syndicate wins unesco press freedom prize
  France · Sudan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:15:00 · gdelt · 073 Provide humanitarian aid · tone -4.53
  Unhcrs 2026 regional response
  Sudan
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 09:30:00 · gdelt · 186 Assassinate · tone -4.83
  Saudi Arabia
  source ↗

Confidence history