Israel and Ottawa are intensifying diplomatic tensions over Canadian casualties and rising antisemitic incidents within Canada.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 48 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (52 NO, 48% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Ottawa (place) gravity 0.0021 · momentum -0.183 · Q1930

Signals

• factor 14.75
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.6
• edge_weight_recent 23.6
• event_count_recent 37

Confidence (53%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Ottawa returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-04-27 17:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -6.69
  Article 55566d26 0c68 5623 ae26
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 16:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.13
  Antisemitic incidents hit another record high in 2025 bnai brith reports
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 00:15:00 · gdelt · 075 Grant asylum · tone -5.81
  Canadian senate report antisemitism calls hate crime units nationwide guarding synagogues protesters
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 08:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.80
  Anand global affairs called in israeli ambassador after canadian killed in lebanon
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 19:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.13
  Anand global affairs called in israeli ambassador after canadian killed in lebanon
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 18:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.56
  Canadian killed lebanon israel anand investigation
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 17:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -1.43
  Cbc ca politics anand israel canadian killed
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 16:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.23
  Csso appeals canadian pm to play a role as a peacemaker
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 12:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.30
  Mil 260416
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 00:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -0.49
  Canada welcomes 10 day ceasefire announcement between lebanon israel
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 07:45:00 · gdelt · 170 Coerce · tone -2.62
  Fc039b8a e187 4b4d b9dd
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-15 20:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -5.50
  Anand expresses concern about killing of canadian in lebanon by israeli forces
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-15 19:30:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -3.55
  From auschwitz holocaust survivor issues urgent warning over rising antisemitism canada
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 23:00:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.66
  Mohamed fahmy carney liberals stand against human rights at united nations
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 13:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -5.18
  Israel haters have largely failed to persuade canadians according to new poll
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 23:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.39
  Lebanese diaspora ottawa gatineau
  Israel · Lebanon · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 22:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.54
  Canada condemns israel for lebanon strikes calls on hezbollah to disarm
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 17:45:00 · gdelt · 014 Consider policy option · tone -1.36
  Carney says canada not considering sanctioning israel over lebanon strikes
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 17:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.11
  Cbc ca politics lebanon canada ceasefire deal
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 12:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -7.01
  As israel eyes executions canada targets palestine solidarity
  Israel · Ottawa
  source ↗

Confidence history