Iran and Paris are intensifying diplomatic engagement over the detention and health crisis of a Nobel laureate activist.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 39 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (61 NO, 39% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Paris (place) gravity 0.0023 · momentum -0.010 · Q90

Signals

• factor 310
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 155
• event_count_recent 267

Confidence (80%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Paris returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-05 19:00:00 · gdelt · 154 Mobilize or increase cyber-forces · tone -9.32
  Former un representative accuses hegseth of war crimes over iran boat attacks
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -7.19
  Jailed iranian peace laureate at risk of dying after heart attack husband says
  France · Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:30:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -2.43
  Iran nobel winner narges mohammadi between life and death supporters
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 15:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.03
  Iran nobel winner mohammadi between life and death supporters
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 15:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -9.13
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 13:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -3.25
  Brazil iran talks vieira araghchi hormuz may 2026
  Brazil · Hormuz · Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 01:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.55
  Trump administration cautions businesses on payments to iran in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 13:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.72
  Article a344135f bf1b 54a7 9895
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 12:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.88
  319908 iran activates air defenses as trump faces congressional deadline
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 04:45:00 · gdelt · 080 Yield · tone -3.40
  Fake iranian opposition wolves in different wolves clothes
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 01:30:00 · gdelt · 011 Decline comment · tone -3.59
  Narges mohammadi iran hospialized
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 00:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.85
  Article c52306ff 9bd1 5ffc b350
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 19:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.66
  Article 55327500 b1e0 5d02 9e9f
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 19:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.30
  Iran submits latest proposal for us negotiations state media say
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 05:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.21
  Iran activates air defences as trump faces congressional deadline
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 10:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.62
  Mystery pop terror group claimed
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 09:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +1.37
  Trump says great friend king charles helped iran fresh swipe keir starmer
  Iran · Paris · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 00:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.12
  Article efff2d57 de49 5578 b0ee
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 08:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.15
  French foreign minister heads to the gulf to build on defence partnerships
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 06:15:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -2.11
  Born in tehran tested in nazi paris how
  Iran · Paris
  source ↗

Confidence history