Paris is intensifying coordination efforts related to security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Entities

• Hormuz (place) gravity 0.0087 · momentum -0.005 · Q888643
• Paris (place) gravity 0.0025 · momentum -0.002 · Q90

Signals

• factor 36.33
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.5
• edge_weight_recent 54.5
• event_count_recent 98

Confidence (61%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Hormuz and Paris returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (18)

• 2026-05-13 10:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +0.78
  Bulgaria+backs+uk french+mission+to+protect+shipping+in+strait+of+hormuz
  France · Paris · Hormuz · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-11 22:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.32
  Macron rules out french military presence in hormuz sans coordination with iran
  Iran · United Kingdom · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-11 11:00:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.19
  Us israel iran war hormuz strait macron nairobi kenya
  Iran · Israel · Kenya · Nairobi · France · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-11 01:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -0.79
  Macron says paris london preparing mission hormuz navigation
  Iran · London · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-10 23:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.90
  Uk france host defence ministers meeting hormuz
  United Kingdom · France · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-10 23:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -2.50
  Iran warns uk france against hormuz warship deployment 505349
  Iran · France · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-09 17:30:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -2.22
  Nyt russia ships drone parts to iran via caspian sea bypassing hormuz strait
  Iran · Russia · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -2.53
  French carrier group moves south of suez ahead of conditional uk french hormuz mission
  France · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 13:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -3.25
  Brazil iran talks vieira araghchi hormuz may 2026
  Iran · Brazil · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 18:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +2.26
  The willing on hormuz europe ready for a security mission to guarantee total and unconditional opening
  Iran · Paris · Europe · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 17:45:00 · gdelt · 014 Consider policy option · tone -6.16
  Iea fatih birol energy crisis iran war strait hormuz oil barrels
  Iran · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 04:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone +3.27
  Britain and france host conference strait hormuz
  Iran · France · Paris · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 03:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +0.00
  Macron and starmer welcome hormuz reopening and push permanent navigation security
  Iran · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 22:45:00 · gdelt · 144 Obstruct passage, block · tone -2.74
  Trump mocks starmer strait hormuz iran
  Iran · Donald Trump · Paris · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 19:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.36
  France uk starmer macron paris hormuz mission
  Iran · France · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer · Gaza Strip
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 13:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -1.12
  26030185.keir starmer arrives paris strait hormuz talks
  Tehran · Paris · Keir Starmer · Hormuz · Gaza Strip
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 12:15:00 · gdelt · 026 Appeal · tone -0.62
  26030185.keir starmer arrives paris strait hormuz talks
  Gaza Strip · Paris · Keir Starmer · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 12:15:00 · gdelt · 026 Appeal · tone -0.62
  26030185.keir starmer arrives paris strait hormuz talks
  Iran · Tehran · Paris · Keir Starmer · Hormuz · Gaza Strip · Israel
  source ↗

Confidence history