Emmanuel Macron and Starmer are intensifying cooperation on reopening and securing the Strait of Hormuz.

Entities

• Starmer (person) gravity 0.0026 · momentum +0.003 · Q7602125
• Emmanuel Macron (person) gravity 0.0016 · momentum -0.005 · Q3052772

Signals

• factor 32.6
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 32.6
• event_count_recent 57

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Starmer and Emmanuel Macron returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (17)

• 2026-04-18 14:45:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -0.88
  U.K.S. starmer and france's macron vow to help open the strait of hormuz
  Strait of Hormuz · France · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 13:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.70
  319608 macron and starmer hold international summit on reopening the strait of hormuz
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 03:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone +0.00
  Macron and starmer welcome hormuz reopening and push permanent navigation security
  Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer · Iran · Paris
  source ↗
• 2026-04-18 00:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone +0.27
  Laugh out loud headline of the day macron starmer welcome hormuz reopening
  Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 19:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.36
  France uk starmer macron paris hormuz mission
  Iran · France · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer · Gaza Strip
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 19:30:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -0.20
  Macron starmer hold
  Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 15:30:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -1.48
  Macron and starmer host hormuz conference on restoring critical supply chains
  Gaza Strip · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 15:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone +0.15
  Macron starmer strait of hormuz summit
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 14:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -0.76
  Macron and starmer welcome strait of hormuz opening but say it must be permanent
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 14:30:00 · gdelt · 026 Appeal · tone -0.68
  Macron starmer strait of hormuz summit
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 12:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.24
  Crisis starmer smiles frances macron hormuz mandelson
  Gaza Strip · Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 12:15:00 · gdelt · 072 Provide military aid · tone -1.25
  Macron starmer strait of hormuz summit
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 11:45:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -1.70
  Macron and starmer hold international summit on reopening the strait of hormuz
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 11:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.41
  Starmer macron accused playing being relevant strait hormuz plan
  Emmanuel Macron · Hormuz · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 08:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.73
  Macron starmer hold international summit on reopening strait of hormuz
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Paris · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 05:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.70
  Macron and starmer hold international summit on reopening the strait of hormuz
  Strait of Hormuz · Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 04:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.95
  Macron starmer hold international summit
  Emmanuel Macron · Starmer
  source ↗

Confidence history