Port-au-Prince is experiencing a sharp surge in violent activity and institutional instability as gang violence and judicial crises intensify across the capital.

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Entities

• Port-au-Prince (place) gravity 0.0006 · momentum -0.105 · Q3551

Signals

• factor 16.25
• n_prior 4
• cell_lat 19
• cell_lon -72.5
• n_recent 65
• cell_size 0.5
• tone_recent -2.56
• window_days 14
• nearest_place Port-au-Prince
• nearest_place_km 53.9

Confidence (70%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Event volume in the cell drops back to its prior 30-day baseline, or no new events arrive there for 7 consecutive days.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.09
  Article 7dd7393b 3e20 4084 87fa
  Syria · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 17:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.00
  Supreme court weighs limits judicial review tps case
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-05-02 00:30:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -0.66
  A guide to state redistricting efforts before the 2026
  Syria · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 23:30:00 · gdelt · 174 Expel or deport individuals · tone -1.56
  Wasserman schultz joins advocates to urge us supreme court to protect tps for haitians venezuelans
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 20:00:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -3.30
  Court halts trumps yemen tps exit
  Syria · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 20:45:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -3.30
  Scotus hears oral arguments over trump admin efforts to end tps for haitian and syrian nationals
  Syria · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 18:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.08
  Haitian immigrants fear uncertain future in trumps america
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 16:45:00 · gdelt · 172 Impose administrative sanctions · tone -2.89
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 15:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +5.73
  News 47414 princess sarah zeid of jordan makes a humanitarian visit to haiti
  Jordan
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 02:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.16
  Article baf14f8a bb19 5441 9fa3
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 01:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.00
  Supreme court weighs limits judicial review tps case
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 00:30:00 · gdelt · 115 Bring lawsuit against · tone -1.73
  Supreme court leans toward trumps move targeting haitian and syrian immigrants
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 00:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.35
  Temporary protected status for migrants hangs by a thread after supreme court showdown
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 17:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.37
  Supreme court to weigh trumps bid to end deportation shield for haiti and syria as thousands brace for ruling
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 17:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.38
  Supreme court temporary protected status
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 16:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.01
  The latest supreme court to hear arguments on ending legal protections for haitiansyrian migrants
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 14:45:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -2.85
  The latest supreme court to hear arguments on ending legal protections for haitian syrian migrants
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 14:15:00 · gdelt · 170 Coerce · tone -1.24
  Supreme court arguments temporary protected status haiti syria
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 12:30:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -4.41
  Supreme court examines trumps move against haitian and syrian immigrants
  Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 12:30:00 · gdelt · 115 Bring lawsuit against · tone -4.54
  Supreme court examines trumps move against haitian and syrian immigrants
  Syria
  source ↗

Confidence history