Turkey is intensifying diplomatic engagement with Hamas as regional mediation efforts around Gaza escalate.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 27 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (19 NO, 30% YES rate).

Entities

• Turkey (place) gravity 0.0073 · momentum -0.005 · Q43
• Hamas (org) gravity 0.0045 · momentum -0.014 · Q170228

Signals

• factor 2.62
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 10.5
• edge_weight_recent 27.5
• event_count_recent 55

Confidence (38%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Turkey and Hamas returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 09:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +1.22
  Mladenov israel reaffirmed commitment to gaza peace plan in jlem meeting
  Hamas · Israel-Gaza · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.46
  Article 71bfe13a 3464 529b 82f6
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 11:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +0.00
  Blair substantial progress made in implementing gaza peace plan
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 00:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.22
  Child pregnancies surge gaza amid reports hamas fighters demanding sex wives martyrs food
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 13:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.24
  Article 893469
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 04:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.70
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-20 03:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -6.04
  Article 893559
  Gaza Strip · Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 19:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.26
  Erdogans turkey weaponizes judicial mechanisms against israel
  Gaza Strip · Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 19:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.24
  16042026 maybe the united states should leave nato oped
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 05:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.82
  Relations between israel and turkey have never been worse could that lead to war
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 01:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -1.37
  Article 893162
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 19:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.56
  Why turkey and israel are feuding
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-11 09:00:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -3.77
  5261094 pressure mounts hamas it weighs response disarmament
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 22:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -7.53
  Gaza Strip · Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 17:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -8.19
  Erdogans words dont pull trigger they load gun
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 12:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone +1.22
  Erdogan spains sanchez discuss ties regional issues 220783
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 22:45:00 · gdelt · 044 Meet at a third location · tone -2.50
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 14:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -2.56
  Article 892113
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 12:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.88
  Hamas · Turkey
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 11:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -5.80
  5259257 gaza factions expect intensified israeli attacks after seeking changes
  Hamas · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Turkey
  source ↗

Confidence history