Turkey, Mali, and Somalia are intensifying diplomatic coordination and security cooperation across the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions.

61% → 0% (7d) Middle East ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 14:21:15

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 14 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (6 NO, 57% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will the US strike Somalia next? resolved 2026-12-31
YES Will the US strike Somalia next? resolved 2026-12-31
YES Will the US strike Somalia next? resolved 2026-12-31
YES Will the US strike Somalia next? resolved 2026-12-31
NO U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? resolved 2026-02-07
YES U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? resolved 2026-01-31

Entities

Turkey (place) gravity 0.0073 · momentum -0.005 · Q43
Mali (place) gravity 0.0011 · momentum +0.583 · Q912
Somalia (place) gravity 0.0006 · momentum -0.055 · Q1045

Signals

factor_ab 6
factor_ac 5
factor_bc 8.13
min_factor 5
window_days 30

Confidence (61%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Any one of the three pair edges (Turkey, Mali, and Somalia) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 61% → 61% across 2 observations.