Iran and Afghanistan's diplomatic engagement is cooling as cross-border dialogue has sharply diminished over recent weeks.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Afghanistan (place) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.037 · Q889

Signals

• factor 0.07
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 13
• event_count_prior 26
• edge_weight_recent 0.9

Confidence (77%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Co-mentions between Iran and Afghanistan recover to their prior level over 30 days, or a single high-tier story explicitly resumes the relationship.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (2)

• 2026-04-07 23:00:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -4.19
  Trump air force search rescue iran war crimes australia ben roberts smith afghanistan
  Afghanistan · Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:30:00 · gdelt · 144 Obstruct passage, block · tone -10.59
  Storms floods kill 188 in afghanistan and pakistan over 2 weeks
  Afghanistan · Iran · Pakistan
  source ↗

Confidence history