Israeli annexation policies in the West Bank are becoming a central issue in electoral campaigns.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 37 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (63 NO, 37% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Election (topic) gravity 0.0033 · momentum -0.096

Signals

• factor 30.7
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 30.7
• event_count_recent 59

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Election returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (6)

• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.08
  20260506 israel pursuing systematic annexation in west bank campaign says
  Election · Gaza Strip · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 00:30:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -2.16
  May 5 online extra election letters
  Election · Gaza Strip · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 20:00:00 · gdelt · 084 Return, release · tone -6.25
  Israel releases idf map showing strikes on iranian bridges in major infrastructure campaign
  Election · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 17:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.12
  Vance says eu is meddling in hungarys election as he backs orban in budapest
  Election · Gaza Strip · Hungary · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 01:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.15
  113498 idf continues campaign against hezbollah reports over 1000 operatives killed
  Beirut · Election · Gaza Strip · Hezbollah · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 23:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.55
  Israels drip feed policy in gaza a deliberate campaign to destroy civil order
  Election · Gaza · Gaza Strip · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Palestine
  source ↗

Confidence history