Tehran, Hezbollah, and Target are converging on shared operational coordination within a tightening strategic alignment.

60% ↓-5% (7d) Middle East ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 13:14:57

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 7 YES of 10 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (3 NO, 70% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? resolved 2026-04-15
NO Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? resolved 2026-04-15
YES Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
NO Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? resolved 2026-03-31
YES Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? resolved 2026-02-28

Entities

Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
Target (org) gravity 0.0018 · momentum -0.474 · Q681829
Hezbollah (org) gravity 0.0015 · momentum +1.307 · Q170424

Signals

factor_ab 11.2
factor_ac 4.56
factor_bc 48
min_factor 4.56
window_days 30

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Target, and Hezbollah) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 70% → 60% across 3 observations.