Iraq, Tehran, and crude oil markets are converging around shared energy policy coordination in the region.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 10 YES of 29 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (19 NO, 34% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? resolved 2026-06-30
- YES Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
Entities
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Iraq (place) gravity 0.0046 · momentum +0.279 · Q796
- WTI Crude Oil Price (indicator) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.950
Signals
- factor_ab 15.57
- factor_ac 9.33
- factor_bc 29
- min_factor 9.33
- window_days 30
Confidence (69%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Iraq, and WTI Crude Oil Price) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.