Iran, the United States, and WTI crude oil prices are converging around shared geopolitical and energy market dynamics.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 41 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (59 NO, 41% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES US forces enter Iran by December 31? resolved 2026-12-31
Entities
- Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
- United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
- WTI Crude Oil Price (indicator) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.950
Signals
- factor_ab 17.71
- factor_ac 7
- factor_bc 5.94
- min_factor 5.94
- window_days 30
Confidence (63%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Iran, United States, and WTI Crude Oil Price) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.