India is intensifying scrutiny of its citizens' safety amid escalating tensions related to Iran's nuclear activities and regional military actions.
Calibration
MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.
Patterns of this shape resolved 43 YES of 88 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (45 NO, 49% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings resolved 2026-05-12
- YES Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants resolved 2026-05-11
- NO Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders resolved 2026-05-10
- YES Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings resolved 2026-05-10
- YES Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians resolved 2026-05-09
- NO Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals resolved 2026-05-08
Entities
- India (place) gravity 0.0032 · momentum +0.190 · Q668
- Iran nuclear (topic) gravity 0.0030 · momentum +0.998
Signals
- factor 2
- window_days 30
- edge_weight_prior 0.5
- edge_weight_recent 1
- event_count_recent 2
Confidence (36%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Edge weight between India and Iran nuclear returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Where the contributing events happen
Contributing events (2)
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India issues fresh advisory restricts movement for indians in tehranIndia · Iran nuclear · Tehran
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Bombay high court dna testing mortal remains indian seafarer killed iranian missile strike 529347India · Iran · Iran nuclear