The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is intensifying attacks on Israeli-owned and U.S. military vessels in regional waters.

41% ↓0% (7d) E-commerce 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 12:58:03

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 2 YES of 2 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (0 NO, 100% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? resolved 2026-02-28
YES Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? resolved —

Entities

Target (org) gravity 0.0018 · momentum -0.474 · Q681829
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (org) gravity 0.0018 · momentum +1.837 · Q260354

Signals

factor 3.6
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 3
edge_weight_recent 10.8
event_count_recent 21

Confidence (41%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Target and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (5)

2026-04-08 00:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -2.53

Irans irgc says targeted israeli owned container vessel U.S. amphibious assault ship

Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target · Tehran

source ↗
2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 138 Threaten with military force · tone -7.41

Northern cities of occupied territories abandoned as missiles freely hit targets irgc commander

Gaza Strip · Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:30:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -2.52

Iran irgc says targeted israeli owned container vessel us amphibious assault ship

Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.46

Irgc navy launches strikes on critical us israeli targets in new phase of operation true promise 4

Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target · United States

source ↗
2026-04-06 14:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -2.48

1st ld writethru iran irgc says targeted israeli owned container vessel us amphibious assault ship

Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target · Tehran

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 41% → 41% across 2 observations.