claim · Tehran's geopolitical tensions are driving sharp increases i

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 27 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (19 NO, 30% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? resolved 2026-06-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? resolved 2026-04-30

Entities

Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
WTI Crude Oil Price (indicator) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.950

Signals

factor 9.33
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 1.5
edge_weight_recent 14
event_count_recent 27

Confidence (49%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and WTI Crude Oil Price returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (14)

2026-05-04 12:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.64

Brent crude nears 115 as hormuz tensions intensify after reported strike on us navy vessel

Hormuz · Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-04 11:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -4.00

Us sanctions china based crude oil terminal operator for trading iran oil

China · China tensions · Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-04 10:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -3.00

Oil prices flat as trumps plan for strait of hormuz fails to calm market

Strait of Hormuz · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 19:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -4.27

Oil prices mixed brent flat us crude up as iran keeps hormuz shut ahead of trump deadline

Donald Trump · Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 14:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -6.56

Iran kharg island strikes oil price 130 trump 2026

Donald Trump · Iran · Tehran · United States · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 10:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.07

Global oil prices jump as trumps hormuz deadline approaches

Hormuz · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 07:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -9.40

Crude oil prices surge over pc over iran 968

Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 06:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -4.47

World insights experts caution end of iran war may not restore global oil prices to normal

Iran · Tehran · United States · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 06:00:00 · gdelt · 138 Threaten with military force · tone -8.44

Oil prices surge toward 2022 highs amid trumps iran ultimatum

Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 05:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.24

944594 oil prices extend gains as trump sharpens rhetoric on iran

Donald Trump · Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-06 20:45:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone -4.50

Iran war strait of hormuz oil prices trump

Donald Trump · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-06 18:30:00 · gdelt · 128 Refuse to ease administrative sanctions · tone -10.40

Trump iran strait of hormuz deadline live updates energy raids threat oil prices

Donald Trump · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-06 18:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -5.08

Markets frozen iran war trump ceasefire talks oil price brent crude wti

Donald Trump · Iran · Tehran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:30:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone -3.46

Chart alert wti crude oil whipsawed above 20 day ma ahead of trumps speech and us iran ceasefire hopes

Iran · Tehran · United States · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 60% → 49% across 3 observations.