Iran's nuclear weapons program is intensifying international concern as diplomatic tensions escalate amid shifting geopolitical alignments.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Nuclear threat (topic) gravity 0.0007 · momentum +0.011

Signals

• factor 26
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.2
• edge_weight_recent 31.2
• event_count_recent 53

Confidence (58%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Nuclear threat returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (13)

• 2026-05-05 22:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -1.91
  Us intelligence finds iran's nuclear weapon development timeline unchanged even after months of war report
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Nuclear threat
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:45:00 · gdelt · 195 Employ aerial weapons · tone -5.09
  Donald trump iran war nuclear weapon timeline
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Nuclear threat
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 11:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.02
  Germanys merz backs us alliance calls iran nuclear threat common goal as trump pulls troops over war rift
  Donald Trump · Germany · Iran · Iran nuclear · Merz · Nuclear threat
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -4.33
  Trump could target irans civilian areas takes key nuclear bomb threat call amid 25th amendment impeachment talks
  Donald Trump · Iran · Islamabad · Nuclear threat · Target
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.67
  Marjorie taylor greene calls for the 25th amendment to be invoked after trumps iran post israel nuclear weapon
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Nuclear threat · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 17:15:00 · gdelt · 139 Give ultimatum · tone -1.74
  Vance says iran 2 pathways 12 hour deadline looms prays us gods side nixing nuclear threat
  Iran · Nuclear threat
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.33
  Marjorie taylor greene calls for the 25th amendment to be invoked after trumps iran post israel nuclear weapon
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Nuclear threat · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:00:00 · gdelt · 015 Acknowledge or claim responsibility · tone -6.92
  Donald trump warns irans whole civilisation will die tonight chilling nuclear threat
  Donald Trump · Iran · Nuclear threat · Tehran · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 15:30:00 · gdelt · 016 Deny responsibility · tone -6.64
  White house denies planning nuclear weapon use against iran article
  Iran · Nuclear threat · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 15:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -3.82
  Donald trump nuclear weapon iran fears social media
  Donald Trump · Iran · Nuclear threat
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 0332 Express intent to provide material aid · tone -11.24
  Iran atomic chief denounces us israeli attacks on nuclear plants as war crime
  Bushehr · Gaza Strip · Iran · Israel · Nuclear threat · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -7.77
  Heavy bombs won%e2%80%99t halt nuclear tech progress iran atomic agency
  Bushehr · Iran · Israel · Nuclear threat · Tel Aviv
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 17:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.28
  Trump cites nuclear threat signals iran endgame
  Donald Trump · Iran · Nuclear threat · Tehran · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history