Iran's regional tensions are increasingly affecting immigration flows and migrant worker conditions across affected countries.

58% → 0% (7d) Middle East 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 12:51:41

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
YES US forces enter Iran by December 31? resolved 2026-12-31

Entities

Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
Immigration (topic) gravity 0.0027 · momentum -0.103 · Q133545

Signals

factor 24.6
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 0.5
edge_weight_recent 12.3
event_count_recent 24

Confidence (58%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Immigration returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (5)

2026-04-07 05:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.38

Centre doubles 5kg cylinder allocation to states as iran war squeezes lpg supply focus on migrant workers

Immigration · Iran · Tehran

source ↗
2026-04-07 05:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.44

Pete hegseths easter remarks savannah guthries faith amid loss churches confront trump immigration impact

Donald Trump · Immigration · Iran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-07 02:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -9.52

Migrant who fled iran depressed living in gateshead

Immigration · Iran

source ↗
2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -4.75

Ice detention el paso iranian asylum seeker

Immigration · Iran · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-06 16:15:00 · gdelt · 063 Engage in judicial cooperation · tone -5.20

Ice houston christian asylum seekers iran war

Immigration · Iran

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 58% → 58% across 3 observations.