Turkey is intensifying coordination with Ukraine on responses to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 11 YES of 43 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (32 NO, 26% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-02-28
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
- NO Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
Entities
- Russia-Ukraine war (topic) gravity 0.0078 · momentum -0.003 · Q124566888
- Turkey (place) gravity 0.0073 · momentum -0.005 · Q43
- Ukraine (place) gravity 0.0072 · momentum +0.080 · Q212
Signals
- factor_ab 4.91
- factor_ac 4.41
- factor_bc 5.03
- min_factor 4.41
- window_days 30
Confidence (59%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey, and Ukraine) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.