Saudi Arabia, Tehran, and Russia are intensifying coordination on regional energy and geopolitical strategy.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 14 YES of 66 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (52 NO, 21% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? resolved 2026-03-31
- NO Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? resolved 2026-03-31
- NO Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
- NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-02-28
- NO Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? resolved 2026-02-25
Entities
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Saudi Arabia (place) gravity 0.0102 · momentum +0.128 · Q851
- Russia (place) gravity 0.0082 · momentum +0.008 · Q159
Signals
- factor_ab 91.04
- factor_ac 38.44
- factor_bc 3.74
- min_factor 3.74
- window_days 30
Confidence (57%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.