Qatar and Tehran are intensifying coordination over maritime security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 7 YES of 16 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (9 NO, 44% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
Entities
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Qatar (place) gravity 0.0061 · momentum +0.043 · Q846
- Strait of Hormuz (place) gravity 0.0043 · momentum +0.823 · Q173040
Signals
- factor_ab 28
- factor_ac 8.02
- factor_bc 6.83
- min_factor 6.83
- window_days 30
Confidence (65%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Qatar, and Strait of Hormuz) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.