The United States, India, and Pakistan are intensifying coordinated engagement on regional security and diplomatic matters.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 48 YES of 96 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (48 NO, 50% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) resolved 2026-02-22
- NO Will India invade Pakistan before July? resolved 2025-06-30
- NO India-Pakistan declare war before June? resolved 2025-05-31
- YES Pakistan military strike on India in May? resolved 2025-05-31
- YES India military action against Pakistan before June? resolved 2025-05-31
- YES Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? resolved 2025-05-09
Entities
- United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
- Pakistan (place) gravity 0.0040 · momentum +1.085 · Q843
- India (place) gravity 0.0032 · momentum +0.190 · Q668
Signals
- factor_ab 16.25
- factor_ac 4.46
- factor_bc 2.16
- min_factor 2.16
- window_days 30
Confidence (50%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (United States, Pakistan, and India) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.