claim · Ukraine is intensifying its accusations of Russian ceasefire

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 11 YES of 42 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (31 NO, 26% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-02-28
NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
NO Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
NO Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025? resolved 2025-12-31

Entities

Russia-Ukraine war (topic) gravity 0.0078 · momentum -0.003 · Q124566888
Ukraine (place) gravity 0.0072 · momentum +0.080 · Q212

Signals

factor 5.03
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 70.1
edge_weight_recent 352.7
event_count_recent 550

Confidence (44%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Russia-Ukraine war and Ukraine returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (9)

2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.84

28802 ukraine accuses russia of breaking kyiv ceasefire

Crimea · Kyiv · Moscow · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 194 Fight with artillery and tanks · tone -9.09

Russia ukraine unilateral ceasefire snub

Moscow · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -9.85

166638 ukraine russia ceasefire may 9

Kyiv · Moscow · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -8.08

Zelensky warns russia is choosing war as ceasefires collapse

Kyiv · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 14:07:57 · rss

'Putin only cares about parades' — Russia violated Kyiv-proposed May 6 ceasefire 1,820 times, Ukraine says

Kyiv · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine · Vladimir Putin

source ↗
2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.28

Donald tusk seeks to align peter magyar with ukraine policy

Belgium · Donald Tusk · Hungary · Kyiv · Poland · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 13:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -8.91

Ukraine says russia violated ceasefire midnight attacks leave one dead others injured

Moscow · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 12:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -6.68

Russia launches deadly overnight strikes ukraine despite zelenskyys

Moscow · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗
2026-05-06 12:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.88

Shock provocation from ukraine we will send drones to moscow russia we will burn kyiv with oreshnik burevestnik

Crimea · Kyiv · Moscow · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Ukraine

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 52% → 44% across 4 observations.