India and Washington are intensifying coordination on regional security matters amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

44% ↑+0% (7d) Americas 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 11:57:51

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 48 YES of 95 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (47 NO, 51% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? resolved 2026-06-30
NO Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings resolved 2026-05-12
YES Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants resolved 2026-05-11
NO Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders resolved 2026-05-10
YES Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings resolved 2026-05-10
YES Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians resolved 2026-05-09

Entities

Washington, D.C. (place) gravity 0.0253 · momentum -0.038 · Q61
India (place) gravity 0.0032 · momentum +0.190 · Q668

Signals

factor 5.25
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 0.8
edge_weight_recent 4.2
event_count_recent 6

Confidence (44%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Washington, D.C. and India returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (4)

2026-04-07 09:00:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone -5.04

Amid iran war foreign secretary heads to washington to review full spectrum of india us ties

India · Iran · United States · Washington, D.C.

source ↗
2026-04-07 07:15:00 · gdelt · 0356 Express intent to cooperate · tone -2.67

The view from india newsletter dear or peril war on iran enters its most decisive phase

India · Iran · United States · Washington, D.C.

source ↗
2026-04-07 06:45:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone +0.00

Coincidence or calculated timing trumps iran deadline overlaps india focused meet

India · Iran · Washington, D.C.

source ↗
2026-04-07 01:30:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -1.58

France india who iran allowing through strait hormuz

France · Hormuz · India · Iran · Washington, D.C.

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 44% → 44% across 4 observations.