claim · The United States is intensifying military targeting operati

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 6 YES of 12 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (6 NO, 50% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? resolved 2026-04-23

Entities

United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
Target (org) gravity 0.0018 · momentum -0.474 · Q681829

Signals

factor 3.53
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 1.5
edge_weight_recent 5.3
event_count_recent 10

Confidence (41%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between United States and Target returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (7)

2026-04-07 23:45:00 · gdelt · 071 Provide economic aid · tone -5.02

Peace through strength why targeting irans war machine is both lawful and necessary

Iran · Target · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-07 21:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.50

Trumps threats against civilian targets put military in legal and moral quandary

Target · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-07 21:30:00 · gdelt · 073 Provide humanitarian aid · tone -2.02

B 2s flew 36 hour mission to target iranian revolutionary guard meeting

Iran · Target · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-07 13:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.42

Us official confirms strike dozens military targets irans 722

Iran · Target · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-07 11:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.63

Iran kharg island targeted with several strikes trump deadline us israel war latest updates 2026 04 07

Donald Trump · Iran · Israel · Target · United States

source ↗
2026-04-06 22:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -3.63

Trump target irans critical infrastructure because theyre animals

Donald Trump · Iran · Target · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.46

Irgc navy launches strikes on critical us israeli targets in new phase of operation true promise 4

Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Target · United States

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 45% → 41% across 3 observations.