United States and Pakistan are intensifying coordination on regional security concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and strategic competition with Iran.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 12 YES of 22 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (10 NO, 55% YES rate).

Entities

• United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
• Pakistan (place) gravity 0.0040 · momentum +1.085 · Q843

Signals

• factor 16.25
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.8
• edge_weight_recent 45.5
• event_count_recent 76

Confidence (54%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between United States and Pakistan returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.61
  Project freedom perishes 48hours trump retreats wall iran asymmetric deterrence
  Islamabad · Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -2.33
  French container ship struck in latest escalation at strait of hormuz
  Pakistan · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.25
  Iran war china strait of hormuz
  Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.68
  Asim munirs mediation drive may be putting pakistan in peril
  Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -1.66
  Trumps diplomatic double game congratulates pm modi on bengal pushing pakistans narrative on operation sindoor
  Pakistan · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:30:00 · gdelt · 084 Return, release · tone -1.73
  Us consulate in peshawar to close for security reasons
  Islamabad · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.14
  Trump pauses project freedom after one day citing progress toward iran deal
  Islamabad · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 05:30:00 · gdelt · 161 Reduce or break diplomatic relations · tone +3.02
  Us to gradually close peshawar consulate citing security concerns
  Islamabad · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 04:15:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone +1.70
  Us to close consulate in pakistans peshawar cites safety of our diplomatic personnel
  Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 03:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone +5.08
  Us to close peshawar consulate over safety concerns
  Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 02:15:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -0.35
  Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 01:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.89
  Marco rubio pope leo trump vatican
  Pakistan · Rome · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 00:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.41
  Trump says hes paused U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels out of strait of hormuz
  Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 00:00:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -5.29
  Judge who apologized to potus attempted assassination suspect is far left muslim with immigrant parents
  Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:00:00 · gdelt · 025 Appeal to yield · tone -3.23
  The latest hegseth and caine say ceasefire between the U.S. and iran is not over
  Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -1.34
  663016 pakistan hopeful efforts will lead to early resolution of us iran conflict dpm dar
  Islamabad · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.95
  Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.79
  Us hands over iranian vessel mv tosca and crew to pakistan for repatriation 504421
  Iran · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:15:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -0.70
  2087350224 us returns seized iranian ship crew to pakistan
  Iran · Pakistan · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 11:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.00
  Us repatriates 22 iranian crew through pakistan in goodwill
  Iran · Islamabad · Pakistan · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history