Egypt, Turkey, and Islamabad are intensifying coordination on regional security and diplomatic initiatives.

70% → 0% (7d) Asia-Pacific ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 11:12:42

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 0 YES of 2 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (2 NO, 0% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? resolved 2026-01-05
NO Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? resolved 2025-09-30

Entities

Islamabad (place) gravity 0.0104 · momentum -0.031 · Q1362
Turkey (place) gravity 0.0073 · momentum -0.005 · Q43
Egypt (place) gravity 0.0067 · momentum +0.127 · Q79

Signals

factor_ab 13.43
factor_ac 65.65
factor_bc 23.62
min_factor 13.43
window_days 30

Confidence (70%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Any one of the three pair edges (Islamabad, Turkey, and Egypt) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 70% → 70% across 5 observations.