Iran, Qatar, and India are intensifying coordination on regional energy and trade partnerships.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 43 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (57 NO, 43% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
- YES Iran strike on Qatar today? resolved 2025-06-24
- NO Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? resolved —
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
Entities
Signals
- factor_ab 7.41
- factor_ac 3.32
- factor_bc 6.67
- min_factor 3.32
- window_days 30
Confidence (56%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Iran, Qatar, and India) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.