Qatar, Tehran, and India are intensifying coordination on regional economic and diplomatic initiatives.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 47 YES of 90 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (43 NO, 52% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings resolved 2026-05-12
- YES Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants resolved 2026-05-11
- NO Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders resolved 2026-05-10
- YES Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings resolved 2026-05-10
- YES Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians resolved 2026-05-09
- NO Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals resolved 2026-05-08
Entities
Signals
- factor_ab 28
- factor_ac 9.1
- factor_bc 6.67
- min_factor 6.67
- window_days 30
Confidence (65%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Qatar, and India) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.