Lebanon, Tehran, and Washington, D.C. are intensifying coordination around regional security and diplomatic tensions.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 11 YES of 22 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (11 NO, 50% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? resolved 2026-06-30
- NO Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? resolved 2026-06-30
- YES Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox resolved 2026-05-02
- YES Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates resolved 2026-04-23
- YES Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals resolved 2026-04-12
- YES Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals resolved 2026-04-10
Entities
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0352 · momentum -0.019 · Q822
- Washington, D.C. (place) gravity 0.0253 · momentum -0.038 · Q61
Signals
- factor_ab 72.05
- factor_ac 8.08
- factor_bc 969.71
- min_factor 8.08
- window_days 30
Confidence (67%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Tehran, Lebanon, and Washington, D.C.) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.