Yemen, Tehran, and Gaza Strip are converging on shared regional security dynamics and coordinated positioning.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 1 YES of 1 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (0 NO, 100% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES US strikes Yemen by December 31? resolved 2025-09-30
Entities
- Gaza Strip (place) gravity 0.0615 · momentum +0.052 · Q41274
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Yemen (place) gravity 0.0015 · momentum +0.053 · Q805
Signals
- factor_ab 13.73
- factor_ac 2.42
- factor_bc 2.86
- min_factor 2.42
- window_days 30
Confidence (52%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Gaza Strip, Tehran, and Yemen) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.